Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Luqueno — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Cerro Porteno54%
Sportivo Luqueno21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cerro Porteno creates 77% more chances
Season form · 97 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cerro Porteno ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches
Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61
Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.00 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Cerro Porteno at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
OlimpiaCerro Porteno
Libertad Asuncion
Sol De America
Deportivo Santani
Nacional Asuncion
Club Guarani
3 De FebreroSportivo Luqueno
Deportivo Capiata
General Diaz
Independiente F.b.c.OlimpiaCerro PortenoLibertad AsuncionNacional AsuncionIndependiente F.b.c.Sol De AmericaGeneral DiazClub GuaraniDeportivo SantaniSportivo LuquenoDeportivo Capiata3 De FebreroIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Cerro Porteno host Sportivo Luqueno on Monday, 2 February 2026 at 23:15. The match is part of the Division Profesional - Apertura 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Luqueno
Cerro Porteno beat Sportivo Luqueno 2-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 2, 2026.
The match was played at Estadio General Pablo Rojas in Asuncion.