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Cerro Porteno vs 3 de Febrero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
4/21/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 13Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cerro Porteno61%
×Draw22%
3 de Febrero17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.85
3 de Febrero
0.86

Cerro Porteno creates 115% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.79
3 de Febrero
0.91

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
0.82
3 de Febrero
1.91

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
83%
Cerro Porteno or 3 de Febrero
78%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
39%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
35%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
84%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
55%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
28%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
58%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
21%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
78%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.85

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
61%
level
22%
3 de Febrero scores more
17%

Cerro Porteno at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: Cerro Porteno 3–1 3 de Febrero

Cerro Porteno beat 3 de Febrero 3-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción).