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Cerro Largo vs Penarol — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Penarol
Penarol
2/18/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Cerro Largo31%
×Draw29%
Penarol40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
1.02
Penarol
1.21

Penarol creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 80 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
1.24
Penarol
1.40

allows per match

Cerro Largo
1.01
Penarol
0.79

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Penarol+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Penarol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
60%
Cerro Largo or Penarol
71%
Draw or Penarol
69%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
12%
Penarol wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
64%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
27%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
8%
Penarol 1+ goals
70%
Penarol 2+ goals
34%
Penarol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
43%
Penarol (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Penarol away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.79 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 1.24 + Penarol defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Penarol attack 1.40 + Cerro Largo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
31%
level
29%
Penarol scores more
40%

Penarol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Penarol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Largo vs Penarol

Penarol beat Cerro Largo 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.