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Cerro Largo vs Fenix — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fenix
Fenix
7/8/2023Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Intermediate Round - 5Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Cerro Largo41%
×Draw27%
Fenix31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Largo
1.31
Fenix
1.10

Cerro Largo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cerro Largo
1.24
Fenix
1.20

allows per match

Cerro Largo
1.01
Fenix
1.38

finishing

Cerro Largo+0.00on par
Fenix+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Largo ↓

Fenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cerro Largo or draw
69%
Cerro Largo or Fenix
73%
Draw or Fenix
59%

Winning margin

Cerro Largo wins by 2+
19%
Fenix wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cerro Largo 1+ goals
73%
Cerro Largo 2+ goals
38%
Cerro Largo 3+ goals
14%
Fenix 1+ goals
67%
Fenix 2+ goals
30%
Fenix 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cerro Largo (draw refunded)
57%
Fenix (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Largo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.01 · 75 matches

Fenix away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.38 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Largo attack 1.24 + Fenix defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fenix attack 1.20 + Cerro Largo defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cerro Largo scores more
41%
level
27%
Fenix scores more
31%

Cerro Largo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cerro Largo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Largo vs Fenix

Cerro Largo beat Fenix 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla in Melo.