Cerrito 1–3 Rocha: Result & Stats

Cerrito

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Rocha

M. Silvera 43'

S. Cal 69'

Mateo Nicolás Suárez 12', 8'

9/21/2020

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Charrúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Cerrito45%

×Draw27%

Rocha28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerritoExpected goals in this matchRocha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.06

Cerrito

1.43

Rocha

1.06

Cerrito creates 35% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

0.89

1.24

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cerrito

1.29

Rocha

0.89

allows per match

Cerrito

1.24

Rocha

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerrito+0.00on par

Rocha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrito ↓

Rocha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cerrito or draw

72%

Cerrito or Rocha

73%

Draw or Rocha

55%

Winning margin

Cerrito wins by 2+

22%

Rocha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cerrito 1+ goals

76%

Cerrito 2+ goals

42%

Cerrito 3+ goals

17%

Rocha 1+ goals

65%

Rocha 2+ goals

29%

Rocha 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cerrito (draw refunded)

62%

Rocha (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrito at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 96 matches

Rocha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrito attack 1.29 + Rocha defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rocha attack 0.89 + Cerrito defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cerrito scores more

45%

level

27%

Rocha scores more

28%

Cerrito at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerrito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Mateo Nicolás Suárez

12'

Mateo Nicolás Suárez

38'

B. Perea← W. Klingender

38'

F. Vega← J. Perujo

43'

M. Silvera

60'

Y. Jordan← D. Arismendi

63'

R. Tarragona← M. Viera

69'

S. Cal

74'

B. Ávila← M. Ferreira

80'

M. Schiaffino← Mateo Nicolás Suárez

85'

F. Pintos← S. Cal

Cerrito

Rocha

▼

⚽

▼

Cal

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Marcenaro

38'▲B. Perea←▼W. Klingender

38'▲F. Vega←▼J. Perujo

63'▲R. Tarragona←▼M. Viera

74'▲B. Ávila←▼M. Ferreira

Cerrito substitutes

PereaVegaTarragonaÁvilaD'OliveiraSantosCaetanoGonellaRoleroRodríguez

Manager: G. Machado

60'▲Y. Jordan←▼D. Arismendi

80'▲M. Schiaffino←▼Mateo Nicolás Suárez

85'▲F. Pintos←▼S. Cal

Rocha substitutes

JordanSchiaffinoPintosSantanaSandianoEvansRiveroCampanileAmaralFischer

Segunda División: Cerrito 1–3 Rocha

Rocha beat Cerrito 3-1 in Segunda División on September 21, 2020.

Goals: Mateo Nicolás Suárez (8', 12'), M. Silvera (43'), S. Cal (69').

The match was played at Estadio Charrúa in Montevideo.

Cerrito vs Rocha — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Cerrito 1–3 Rocha