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Cerrito vs Rampla Juniors — Segunda División 2026

Cerrito
Cerrito
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rampla Juniors
Rampla Juniors
7/30/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 13Parque Palermo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cerrito42%
×Draw28%
Rampla Juniors30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerrito
1.29
Rampla Juniors
1.03

Cerrito creates 25% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 58 away

creates per match

Cerrito
1.25
Rampla Juniors
0.83

allows per match

Cerrito
1.23
Rampla Juniors
1.34

finishing

Cerrito+0.00on par
Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrito ↓

Rampla Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cerrito or draw
70%
Cerrito or Rampla Juniors
72%
Draw or Rampla Juniors
58%

Winning margin

Cerrito wins by 2+
19%
Rampla Juniors wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cerrito 1+ goals
72%
Cerrito 2+ goals
37%
Cerrito 3+ goals
14%
Rampla Juniors 1+ goals
64%
Rampla Juniors 2+ goals
28%
Rampla Juniors 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerrito (draw refunded)
59%
Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrito attack 1.25 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rampla Juniors attack 0.83 + Cerrito defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cerrito scores more
42%
level
28%
Rampla Juniors scores more
30%

Cerrito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerrito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerrito vs Rampla Juniors

Cerrito and Rampla Juniors drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Parque Palermo in Montevideo.