Cerrito 2–0 Bella Vista: Result & Stats

Cerrito

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bella Vista

9/22/2019

Segunda División · Round 18Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cerrito46%

×Draw26%

Bella Vista27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CerritoExpected goals in this matchBella Vista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Cerrito

1.44

Bella Vista

1.04

Cerrito creates 38% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 27 away

1.25

creates per match

0.85

1.23

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Cerrito

1.25

Bella Vista

0.85

allows per match

Cerrito

1.23

Bella Vista

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerrito+0.00on par

Bella Vista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrito ↓

Bella Vista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cerrito or draw

73%

Cerrito or Bella Vista

74%

Draw or Bella Vista

54%

Winning margin

Cerrito wins by 2+

23%

Bella Vista wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cerrito 1+ goals

76%

Cerrito 2+ goals

42%

Cerrito 3+ goals

18%

Bella Vista 1+ goals

65%

Bella Vista 2+ goals

28%

Bella Vista 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cerrito (draw refunded)

63%

Bella Vista (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrito at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

Bella Vista away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrito attack 1.25 + Bella Vista defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bella Vista attack 0.85 + Cerrito defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cerrito scores more

46%

level

26%

Bella Vista scores more

27%

Cerrito at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cerrito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff