Cerrado EC U20 1–2 Itauçu U20: Result & Stats

Cerrado EC U20

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Itauçu U20

3/15/2025

Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT Toca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cerrado EC U2061%

×Draw20%

Itauçu U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerrado EC U20Expected goals in this matchItauçu U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.21

Cerrado EC U20

2.27

Itauçu U20

1.21

Cerrado EC U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.20

1.21

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Cerrado EC U20

1.53

Itauçu U20

1.20

allows per match

Cerrado EC U20

1.21

Itauçu U20

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerrado EC U20+0.00on par

Itauçu U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrado EC U20 ↓

Itauçu U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Cerrado EC U20 or draw

81%

Cerrado EC U20 or Itauçu U20

80%

Draw or Itauçu U20

39%

Winning margin

Cerrado EC U20 wins by 2+

39%

Itauçu U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cerrado EC U20 1+ goals

90%

Cerrado EC U20 2+ goals

66%

Cerrado EC U20 3+ goals

39%

Itauçu U20 1+ goals

70%

Itauçu U20 2+ goals

34%

Itauçu U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cerrado EC U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Itauçu U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrado EC U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Itauçu U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrado EC U20 attack 1.53 + Itauçu U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Itauçu U20 attack 1.20 + Cerrado EC U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cerrado EC U20 scores more

61%

level

20%

Itauçu U20 scores more

19%

Cerrado EC U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cerrado EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff