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Cerrado EC U20 vs Itaberai U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Cerrado EC U20
Cerrado EC U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Itaberai U20
Itaberai U20
4/1/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5CT Toca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cerrado EC U2065%
×Draw19%
Itaberai U2015%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerrado EC U20
2.18
Itaberai U20
0.94

Cerrado EC U20 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.53
Itaberai U20
0.67

allows per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.21
Itaberai U20
2.83

finishing

Cerrado EC U20+0.00on par
Itaberai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrado EC U20 ↓

Itaberai U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cerrado EC U20 or draw
85%
Cerrado EC U20 or Itaberai U20
81%
Draw or Itaberai U20
35%

Winning margin

Cerrado EC U20 wins by 2+
42%
Itaberai U20 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cerrado EC U20 1+ goals
89%
Cerrado EC U20 2+ goals
64%
Cerrado EC U20 3+ goals
37%
Itaberai U20 1+ goals
61%
Itaberai U20 2+ goals
24%
Itaberai U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cerrado EC U20 (draw refunded)
81%
Itaberai U20 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrado EC U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Itaberai U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrado EC U20 attack 1.53 + Itaberai U20 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.18

Itaberai U20 attack 0.67 + Cerrado EC U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cerrado EC U20 scores more
65%
level
19%
Itaberai U20 scores more
15%

Cerrado EC U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cerrado EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerrado EC U20 vs Itaberai U20

Cerrado EC U20 beat Itaberai U20 1-0 in Goiano U20 on April 1, 2024.

The match was played at CT Toca do Lobo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.