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Cerrado EC U20 vs Goianesia U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Cerrado EC U20
Cerrado EC U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Goianesia U20
Goianesia U20
4/26/2025Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 10CT Toca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cerrado EC U2066%
×Draw20%
Goianesia U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerrado EC U20
2.02
Goianesia U20
0.77

Cerrado EC U20 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.53
Goianesia U20
0.33

allows per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.21
Goianesia U20
2.50

finishing

Cerrado EC U20+0.00on par
Goianesia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrado EC U20 ↓

Goianesia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cerrado EC U20 or draw
87%
Cerrado EC U20 or Goianesia U20
80%
Draw or Goianesia U20
34%

Winning margin

Cerrado EC U20 wins by 2+
41%
Goianesia U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cerrado EC U20 1+ goals
87%
Cerrado EC U20 2+ goals
60%
Cerrado EC U20 3+ goals
33%
Goianesia U20 1+ goals
54%
Goianesia U20 2+ goals
18%
Goianesia U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cerrado EC U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Goianesia U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrado EC U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Goianesia U20 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrado EC U20 attack 1.53 + Goianesia U20 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Goianesia U20 attack 0.33 + Cerrado EC U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Cerrado EC U20 scores more
66%
level
20%
Goianesia U20 scores more
13%

Cerrado EC U20 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Cerrado EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Cerrado EC U20 1–0 Goianesia U20

Cerrado EC U20 beat Goianesia U20 1-0 in Goiano U20 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at CT Toca do Lobo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.