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Cerrado EC U20 vs Aparecidense U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Cerrado EC U20
Cerrado EC U20
FT
1 – 2
Aparecidense U20
Aparecidense U20
3/22/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT Toca do Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cerrado EC U2050%
×Draw25%
Aparecidense U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerrado EC U20
1.59
Aparecidense U20
1.05

Cerrado EC U20 creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

creates per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.53
Aparecidense U20
0.90

allows per match

Cerrado EC U20
1.21
Aparecidense U20
1.65

finishing

Cerrado EC U20+0.00on par
Aparecidense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerrado EC U20 ↓

Aparecidense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cerrado EC U20 or draw
75%
Cerrado EC U20 or Aparecidense U20
75%
Draw or Aparecidense U20
50%

Winning margin

Cerrado EC U20 wins by 2+
26%
Aparecidense U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cerrado EC U20 1+ goals
80%
Cerrado EC U20 2+ goals
47%
Cerrado EC U20 3+ goals
21%
Aparecidense U20 1+ goals
65%
Aparecidense U20 2+ goals
28%
Aparecidense U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cerrado EC U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Aparecidense U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerrado EC U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Aparecidense U20 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerrado EC U20 attack 1.53 + Aparecidense U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Aparecidense U20 attack 0.90 + Cerrado EC U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cerrado EC U20 scores more
50%
level
25%
Aparecidense U20 scores more
25%

Cerrado EC U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cerrado EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Cerrado EC U20 1–2 Aparecidense U20

Aparecidense U20 beat Cerrado EC U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at CT Toca do Lobo in Aparecida de Goiânia, Goiás.