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Cerezo Osaka vs Pohang Steelers — AFC Champions League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pohang Steelers
Pohang Steelersadvanced
9/15/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cerezo Osaka55%
×Draw24%
Pohang Steelers21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.67
Pohang Steelers
0.93

Cerezo Osaka creates 80% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.71
Pohang Steelers
1.00

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
0.86
Pohang Steelers
1.64

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Pohang Steelers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
79%
Cerezo Osaka or Pohang Steelers
76%
Draw or Pohang Steelers
45%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
30%
Pohang Steelers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
81%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
50%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
23%
Pohang Steelers 1+ goals
61%
Pohang Steelers 2+ goals
24%
Pohang Steelers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
72%
Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.71 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pohang Steelers attack 1.00 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
55%
level
24%
Pohang Steelers scores more
21%

Cerezo Osaka at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Pohang Steelers

Pohang Steelers beat Cerezo Osaka 1-0 in AFC Champions League on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadium Nagai in Osaka.