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Cerezo Osaka vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
CANC
10:00
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
6/21/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Play-offs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cerezo Osaka39%
×Draw26%
Melbourne City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.35
Melbourne City
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.71
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
0.86
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
65%
Cerezo Osaka or Melbourne City
74%
Draw or Melbourne City
61%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
74%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
39%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
15%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
72%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
37%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
52%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.71 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
39%
level
26%
Melbourne City scores more
35%

Cerezo Osaka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cerezo Osaka host Melbourne City

June 21, 2021: Cerezo Osaka take on Melbourne City in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.