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Cerezo Osaka vs Kitchee — AFC Champions League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kitchee
Kitchee
6/27/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group J - 2Chang Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cerezo Osaka57%
×Draw24%
Kitchee19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.73
Kitchee
0.89

Cerezo Osaka creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.71
Kitchee
0.92

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
0.86
Kitchee
1.75

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Kitchee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
81%
Cerezo Osaka or Kitchee
76%
Draw or Kitchee
43%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
32%
Kitchee wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
82%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
52%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
25%
Kitchee 1+ goals
59%
Kitchee 2+ goals
22%
Kitchee 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
75%
Kitchee (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Kitchee away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.71 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kitchee attack 0.92 + Cerezo Osaka defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
57%
level
24%
Kitchee scores more
19%

Cerezo Osaka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Kitchee

Cerezo Osaka beat Kitchee 2-1 in AFC Champions League on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Chang Arena in Buriram.