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Ceres vs Tuloy — PFL 2020

Ceres
Ceres
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tuloy
Tuloy
6/9/2024PFLPFL · Round 8Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceres84%
×Draw10%
Tuloy7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
3.99
Tuloy
1.15

Ceres creates 247% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.47
Tuloy
1.65

allows per match

Ceres
0.65
Tuloy
5.50

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Tuloy+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Tuloy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
93%
Ceres or Tuloy
90%
Draw or Tuloy
16%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
68%
Tuloy wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
98%
Ceres 2+ goals
90%
Ceres 3+ goals
73%
Tuloy 1+ goals
68%
Tuloy 2+ goals
32%
Tuloy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
93%
Tuloy (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Tuloy away — creates 1.65, concedes 5.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Tuloy defence 5.50 → ÷2 → 3.99

Tuloy attack 1.65 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ceres scores more
84%
level
10%
Tuloy scores more
7%

Ceres at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceres vs Tuloy

Ceres beat Tuloy 1-0 in PFL on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.