Ceres 2–2 Than Quang Ninh: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Ceres

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Than Quang Ninh

2/25/2020

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ceres56%

×Draw19%

Than Quang Ninh25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeresExpected goals in this matchThan Quang Ninh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.63

Ceres

2.46

Than Quang Ninh

1.63

Ceres creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

2.58

creates per match

2.33

0.92

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Ceres

2.58

Than Quang Ninh

2.33

allows per match

Ceres

0.92

Than Quang Ninh

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par

Than Quang Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Than Quang Ninh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Ceres or draw

75%

Ceres or Than Quang Ninh

81%

Draw or Than Quang Ninh

44%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+

35%

Than Quang Ninh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals

91%

Ceres 2+ goals

70%

Ceres 3+ goals

44%

Than Quang Ninh 1+ goals

80%

Than Quang Ninh 2+ goals

48%

Than Quang Ninh 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)

69%

Than Quang Ninh (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Than Quang Ninh away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Than Quang Ninh defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.46

Than Quang Ninh attack 2.33 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ceres scores more

56%

level

19%

Than Quang Ninh scores more

25%

Ceres at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff