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Ceres vs Taguig — PFL 2020

Ceres
Ceres
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Taguig
Taguig
7/6/2024PFLPFL · Round 10Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceres38%
×Draw23%
Taguig40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.67
Taguig
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.47
Taguig
2.80

allows per match

Ceres
0.65
Taguig
0.87

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Taguig+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Taguig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
60%
Ceres or Taguig
77%
Draw or Taguig
62%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
19%
Taguig wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
81%
Ceres 2+ goals
50%
Ceres 3+ goals
23%
Taguig 1+ goals
82%
Taguig 2+ goals
51%
Taguig 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
49%
Taguig (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Taguig away — creates 2.80, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Taguig defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.67

Taguig attack 2.80 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ceres scores more
38%
level
23%
Taguig scores more
40%

Taguig at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Taguig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Ceres 2–2 Taguig

Ceres and Taguig drew 2-2 in PFL on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.