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Ceres vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
M. Tilio 90'
J. Maclaren 68'
R. Rodrigues 22'
4/30/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 6BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceres16%
×Draw21%
Melbourne City63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
0.88
Melbourne City
1.98

Melbourne City creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ceres
0.75
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

Ceres
2.25
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
37%
Ceres or Melbourne City
79%
Draw or Melbourne City
84%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
5%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
59%
Ceres 2+ goals
22%
Ceres 3+ goals
6%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
86%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
59%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
20%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ceres scores more
16%
level
21%
Melbourne City scores more
63%

Melbourne City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
S. JamiesonMelbourne CityMelbourne City · D
8.3

Match Events

19'
Curt Dizon
22'
R. Rodrigues↳ S. Colakovski
56'
Alan Robertson
59'
A. Nabbout← S. Colakovski
59'
J. Maclaren← R. Rodrigues
68'
C. Jenkinson← S. Galloway
68'
J. Bos← T. Gomulka
68'
J. Maclaren↳ A. Nabbout
69'
P. Salenga← C. Dizon
73'
Alan Robertson
73'
Alan Robertson
81'
A. Esswein← D. Ebarle
81'
W. Grierson← S. Lyngbö
90'
M. Tilio↳ J. Maclaren

Possession

48%Ceres

Shots

10Ceres

Pass accuracy

48%Ceres

Statistics

CeresMelbourne
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots18
5Corners5
9Fouls7
Shots
10Total Shots18
3On Target10
4Off Target7
3Blocked1
3Inside Box13
7Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
439Total Passes472
352Accurate Passes407
80%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
7Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls7
3Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
1Offsides4

AFC Champions League: Ceres 0–3 Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Ceres 3-0 in AFC Champions League on April 30, 2022.

Goals: R. Rodrigues (22'), J. Maclaren (68'), M. Tilio (90').

Melbourne City controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.