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Ceres vs Kawasaki Frontale — AFC Champions League 2018

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
7/5/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group I - 4Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceres13%
×Draw18%
Kawasaki Frontale69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
0.88
Kawasaki Frontale
2.30

Kawasaki Frontale creates 161% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ceres
0.75
Kawasaki Frontale
2.35

allows per match

Ceres
2.25
Kawasaki Frontale
1.00

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Kawasaki Frontale+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
31%
Ceres or Kawasaki Frontale
82%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
87%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
4%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
59%
Ceres 2+ goals
22%
Ceres 3+ goals
6%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
90%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
67%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
16%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Kawasaki Frontale attack 2.35 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Ceres scores more
13%
level
18%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
69%

Kawasaki Frontale at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kawasaki Frontale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ceres 0–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Kawasaki Frontale beat Ceres 2-0 in AFC Champions League on July 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Tashkent.