Ceres 7–0 Garelli United: Result & Stats | PFL

Ceres

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Garelli United

5/5/2024

PFL · Round 4Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceres84%

×Draw10%

Garelli United6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeresExpected goals in this matchGarelli United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.66

0.96

Ceres

3.66

Garelli United

0.96

Ceres creates 281% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

2.47

creates per match

1.26

0.65

allows per match

4.84

creates per match

Ceres

2.47

Garelli United

1.26

allows per match

Ceres

0.65

Garelli United

4.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par

Garelli United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Garelli United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–18%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Ceres or draw

94%

Ceres or Garelli United

90%

Draw or Garelli United

16%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+

68%

Garelli United wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals

97%

Ceres 2+ goals

87%

Ceres 3+ goals

68%

Garelli United 1+ goals

62%

Garelli United 2+ goals

25%

Garelli United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)

93%

Garelli United (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Garelli United away — creates 1.26, concedes 4.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Garelli United defence 4.84 → ÷2 → 3.66

Garelli United attack 1.26 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ceres scores more

84%

level

10%

Garelli United scores more

6%

Ceres at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff