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Ceres vs Davao Aguilas — PFL 2020

Ceres
Ceres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Davao Aguilas
Davao Aguilas
6/16/2024PFLPFL · Round 8Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceres48%
×Draw23%
Davao Aguilas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceres
1.76
Davao Aguilas
1.30

Ceres creates 35% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ceres
2.47
Davao Aguilas
1.96

allows per match

Ceres
0.65
Davao Aguilas
1.04

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par
Davao Aguilas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Davao Aguilas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ceres or draw
72%
Ceres or Davao Aguilas
77%
Draw or Davao Aguilas
52%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+
26%
Davao Aguilas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals
83%
Ceres 2+ goals
52%
Ceres 3+ goals
26%
Davao Aguilas 1+ goals
73%
Davao Aguilas 2+ goals
37%
Davao Aguilas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)
63%
Davao Aguilas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Davao Aguilas away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.47 + Davao Aguilas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.76

Davao Aguilas attack 1.96 + Ceres defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ceres scores more
48%
level
23%
Davao Aguilas scores more
28%

Ceres at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceres vs Davao Aguilas

Ceres and Davao Aguilas drew 0-0 in PFL on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.