Ceres 1–3 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats

Ceres

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

BG Pathum United

4/24/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ceres28%

×Draw23%

BG Pathum United50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeresExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.85

Ceres

1.33

BG Pathum United

1.85

BG Pathum United creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

0.75

creates per match

1.45

2.25

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Ceres

0.75

BG Pathum United

1.45

allows per match

Ceres

2.25

BG Pathum United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ceres or draw

50%

Ceres or BG Pathum United

77%

Draw or BG Pathum United

72%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+

12%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals

74%

Ceres 2+ goals

38%

Ceres 3+ goals

15%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

84%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

55%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)

36%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 0.75 + BG Pathum United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

BG Pathum United attack 1.45 + Ceres defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ceres scores more

28%

level

23%

BG Pathum United scores more

50%

BG Pathum United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff