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Cercle Mbéri vs Mangasport — Championnat D1 2022

Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mangasport
Mangasport
5/30/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cercle Mbéri26%
×Draw32%
Mangasport43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Mbéri
0.77
Mangasport
1.09

Mangasport creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cercle Mbéri
1.06
Mangasport
1.52

allows per match

Cercle Mbéri
0.67
Mangasport
0.48

finishing

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par
Mangasport+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Mbéri ↓

Mangasport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Cercle Mbéri or draw
57%
Cercle Mbéri or Mangasport
68%
Draw or Mangasport
74%

Winning margin

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
8%
Mangasport wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
54%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
18%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
4%
Mangasport 1+ goals
66%
Mangasport 2+ goals
30%
Mangasport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
37%
Mangasport (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Mbéri at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

Mangasport away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.06 + Mangasport defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.77

Mangasport attack 1.52 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cercle Mbéri scores more
26%
level
32%
Mangasport scores more
43%

Mangasport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cercle Mbéri vs Mangasport

Mangasport beat Cercle Mbéri 3-0 in Championnat D1 on May 30, 2026.