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Cercle Mbéri vs US Oyem — Championnat D1 2022

Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
US Oyem
US Oyem
5/17/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Cercle Mbéri50%
×Draw28%
US Oyem22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Mbéri
1.35
US Oyem
0.79

Cercle Mbéri creates 71% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Cercle Mbéri
1.06
US Oyem
0.91

allows per match

Cercle Mbéri
0.67
US Oyem
1.64

finishing

Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par
US Oyem+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Mbéri ↓

US Oyem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cercle Mbéri or draw
78%
Cercle Mbéri or US Oyem
72%
Draw or US Oyem
50%

Winning margin

Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
24%
US Oyem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
74%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
39%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
15%
US Oyem 1+ goals
55%
US Oyem 2+ goals
19%
US Oyem 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
70%
US Oyem (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Mbéri at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.67 · 33 matches

US Oyem away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.06 + US Oyem defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

US Oyem attack 0.91 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cercle Mbéri scores more
50%
level
28%
US Oyem scores more
22%

Cercle Mbéri at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cercle Mbéri 1 – 1 US Oyem

Cercle Mbéri and US Oyem drew 1-1 in Championnat D1 on May 17, 2026.