Cercle Brugge 3–1 Zulte Waregem: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zulte Waregem

K. Denkey 90+4'

B. Popović 41'

D. Hotič 6' (pen)

J. Vossen 89'

1/23/2022

Jupiler Pro League · Round 23Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Cercle Brugge45%

×Draw24%

Zulte Waregem31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchZulte Waregem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.38

Cercle Brugge

1.70

Zulte Waregem

1.38

Cercle Brugge creates 23% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

1.48

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.67

Zulte Waregem

1.27

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.48

Zulte Waregem

1.73

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.23scores less

Zulte Waregem+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Zulte Waregem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

69%

Cercle Brugge or Zulte Waregem

76%

Draw or Zulte Waregem

55%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

24%

Zulte Waregem wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

82%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

51%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

24%

Zulte Waregem 1+ goals

75%

Zulte Waregem 2+ goals

40%

Zulte Waregem 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

59%

Zulte Waregem (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Zulte Waregem away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.67 + Zulte Waregem defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.70

Zulte Waregem attack 1.27 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

45%

level

24%

Zulte Waregem scores more

31%

Cercle Brugge at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Hotič

Cercle Brugge · M

8.6

Match Events

4'

Thibo SomersPenalty awarded

6'

D. HotičPenalty

14'

29'

41'

42'

44'

Ibrahima SeckCard reviewed

45+2'

46'

50'

57'

58'

C. Vanhoutte← Leonardo Lopes

58'

I. Doumbia← I. Seck

69'

Sousa← O. Deman

71'

D. De Neve← F. Boya

75'

Timothy Derijck

80'

K. Denkey← R. Matondo

89'

J. Vossen

90'

Dereck KutesaGoal confirmed

90+4'

K. Denkey↳ S. Miangué

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CercleZulte

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots11

3Corners5

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target4

6Off Target4

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

285Total Passes429

157Accurate Passes284

55%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1