Cercle Brugge 3–1 St. Truiden: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

St. Truiden

4/15/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 33Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge38%

×Draw24%

St. Truiden38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchSt. Truiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Cercle Brugge

1.50

St. Truiden

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 27 away

1.62

creates per match

1.46

1.53

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.62

St. Truiden

1.46

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.53

St. Truiden

1.39

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less

St. Truiden+0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

St. Truiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

62%

Cercle Brugge or St. Truiden

76%

Draw or St. Truiden

62%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

18%

St. Truiden wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

78%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

44%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

19%

St. Truiden 1+ goals

78%

St. Truiden 2+ goals

44%

St. Truiden 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

50%

St. Truiden (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.39 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + St. Truiden defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

St. Truiden attack 1.46 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

38%

level

24%

St. Truiden scores more

38%

Cercle Brugge at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff