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Cercle Brugge vs Kortrijk — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kortrijk
Kortrijk
12/20/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 19Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Cercle Brugge44%
×Draw25%
Kortrijk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.54
Kortrijk
1.27

Cercle Brugge creates 21% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 116 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.45
Kortrijk
1.11

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.43
Kortrijk
1.63

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Kortrijk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Kortrijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
69%
Cercle Brugge or Kortrijk
75%
Draw or Kortrijk
56%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
22%
Kortrijk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
79%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
45%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
20%
Kortrijk 1+ goals
72%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
36%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
58%
Kortrijk (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 142 matches

Kortrijk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Kortrijk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kortrijk attack 1.11 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
44%
level
25%
Kortrijk scores more
31%

Cercle Brugge at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 3–0 Kortrijk

Cercle Brugge beat Kortrijk 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.