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Cercle Brugge vs Jagiellonia — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Bruggeadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
3/13/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cercle Brugge49%
×Draw23%
Jagiellonia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.78
Jagiellonia
1.28

Cercle Brugge creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
2.40
Jagiellonia
1.17

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.17

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
72%
Cercle Brugge or Jagiellonia
77%
Draw or Jagiellonia
51%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
27%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
83%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
53%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
26%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
72%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
37%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
64%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 2.40 + Jagiellonia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jagiellonia attack 1.17 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
49%
level
23%
Jagiellonia scores more
28%

Cercle Brugge at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs Jagiellonia

Cercle Brugge beat Jagiellonia 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.