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Cercle Brugge vs Heart Of Midlothian — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
11/28/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cercle Brugge65%
×Draw19%
Heart Of Midlothian17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
2.39
Heart Of Midlothian
1.14

Cercle Brugge creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
2.40
Heart Of Midlothian
0.88

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.40
Heart Of Midlothian
2.38

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
Heart Of Midlothian+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
83%
Cercle Brugge or Heart Of Midlothian
81%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
35%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
42%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
91%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
69%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
42%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
68%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
32%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
79%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 2.40 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.39

Heart Of Midlothian attack 0.88 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
65%
level
19%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
17%

Cercle Brugge at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Cercle Brugge 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian

Cercle Brugge beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 28, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.