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Cercle Brugge vs FC ST. Gallen — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
10/3/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cercle Brugge55%
×Draw20%
FC ST. Gallen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
2.30
FC ST. Gallen
1.50

Cercle Brugge creates 53% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
2.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.60

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
2.20

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par
FC ST. Gallen+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
75%
Cercle Brugge or FC ST. Gallen
80%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
45%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
34%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
90%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
67%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
40%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
78%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
44%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
69%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 2.40 + FC ST. Gallen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.30

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.60 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
55%
level
20%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
25%

Cercle Brugge at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Cercle Brugge 6–2 FC ST. Gallen

Cercle Brugge beat FC ST. Gallen 6-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 3, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.