Cercle Brugge 2–1 Beerschot VA: Result & Stats

Cercle Brugge

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beerschot VA

4/5/2025

Jupiler Pro League · Relegation Round - 2Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Cercle Brugge52%

×Draw23%

Beerschot VA25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cercle BruggeExpected goals in this matchBeerschot VA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Cercle Brugge

1.88

Beerschot VA

1.25

Cercle Brugge creates 50% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 54 away

1.46

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Cercle Brugge

1.46

Beerschot VA

1.07

allows per match

Cercle Brugge

1.43

Beerschot VA

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cercle Brugge+0.00on par

Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Beerschot VA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw

75%

Cercle Brugge or Beerschot VA

77%

Draw or Beerschot VA

48%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

29%

Beerschot VA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

85%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

56%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

29%

Beerschot VA 1+ goals

71%

Beerschot VA 2+ goals

36%

Beerschot VA 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

67%

Beerschot VA (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 140 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.30 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.46 + Beerschot VA defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.88

Beerschot VA attack 1.07 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more

52%

level

23%

Beerschot VA scores more

25%

Cercle Brugge at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff