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Cercle Brugge vs Beerschot VA — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
I. Ugbo 34' (pen)
G. Biancone 18'
J. Van den Bergh 50'
4/4/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 32Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Cercle Brugge52%
×Draw23%
Beerschot VA25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.77
Beerschot VA
1.15

Cercle Brugge creates 54% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.62
Beerschot VA
0.77

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.53
Beerschot VA
1.91

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less
Beerschot VA+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
75%
Cercle Brugge or Beerschot VA
77%
Draw or Beerschot VA
48%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
29%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
83%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
53%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
26%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
68%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
32%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
68%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + Beerschot VA defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.77

Beerschot VA attack 0.77 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
52%
level
23%
Beerschot VA scores more
25%

Cercle Brugge at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41
G. BianconeCercle BruggeCercle Brugge · D
7.6

Match Events

18'
G. Biancone↳ D. Bates
33'
Ryan Sanusi
34'
I. UgboPenalty
38'
Dimitar Velkovski
44'
Leonardo da Silva Lopes
46'
A. Corryn← O. Deman
46'
A. Sanyang← Y. Vorogovskiy
46'
P. Bourdin← F. Frans
49'
Giulian Biancone
50'
J. Van den Bergh↳ R. Holzhauser
65'
Z. Bakkali← L. Brogno
73'
Ike Ugbo
76'
H. Van der Bruggen← K. Hoggas
76'
K. Denkey← I. Ugbo
81'
B. Eleke← T. Pietermaat
89'
D. Hotič← Leonardo Lopes

Possession

41%Cercle

Shots

7Cercle

Pass accuracy

47%Cercle

Statistics

CercleBeerschot
Overview
41%Possession59%
7Total Shots8
2Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots8
3On Target1
3Off Target6
1Blocked1
7Inside Box7
0Outside Box1
Passing
41%Possession59%
319Total Passes449
224Accurate Passes361
70%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cercle Brugge vs Beerschot VA

Cercle Brugge beat Beerschot VA 2-1 in Jupiler Pro League on April 4, 2021.

Goals: G. Biancone (18'), I. Ugbo (34' pen), J. Van den Bergh (50').

Beerschot VA controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.