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Ceramica Cleopatra vs El Gouna FC — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Gouna FC
El Gouna FC
2/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra43%
×Draw28%
El Gouna FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.29
El Gouna FC
1.02

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 26% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
El Gouna FC
0.91

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
El Gouna FC
1.24

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
El Gouna FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

El Gouna FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
71%
Ceramica Cleopatra or El Gouna FC
72%
Draw or El Gouna FC
57%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
19%
El Gouna FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
72%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
37%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
14%
El Gouna FC 1+ goals
64%
El Gouna FC 2+ goals
27%
El Gouna FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
59%
El Gouna FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

El Gouna FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.24 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + El Gouna FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

El Gouna FC attack 0.91 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
43%
level
28%
El Gouna FC scores more
29%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra 1–1 El Gouna FC

Ceramica Cleopatra and El Gouna FC drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 20, 2024.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.