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Ceramica Cleopatra vs El Entag EL Harby — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Entag EL Harby
El Entag EL Harby
4/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18New Suez Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra43%
×Draw27%
El Entag EL Harby31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.39
El Entag EL Harby
1.14

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 22% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
El Entag EL Harby
1.14

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
El Entag EL Harby
1.45

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
El Entag EL Harby+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

El Entag EL Harby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
69%
Ceramica Cleopatra or El Entag EL Harby
73%
Draw or El Entag EL Harby
57%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
20%
El Entag EL Harby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
75%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
40%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
16%
El Entag EL Harby 1+ goals
68%
El Entag EL Harby 2+ goals
32%
El Entag EL Harby 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
58%
El Entag EL Harby (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

El Entag EL Harby away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + El Entag EL Harby defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

El Entag EL Harby attack 1.14 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
43%
level
27%
El Entag EL Harby scores more
31%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra 1–1 El Entag EL Harby

Ceramica Cleopatra and El Entag EL Harby drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at New Suez Stadium in Suez.