Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ceramica Cleopatra vs El Dakhleya — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Dakhleya
El Dakhleya
12/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra46%
×Draw27%
El Dakhleya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.42
El Dakhleya
1.01

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 51 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
El Dakhleya
0.88

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
El Dakhleya
1.51

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
El Dakhleya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

El Dakhleya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
73%
Ceramica Cleopatra or El Dakhleya
73%
Draw or El Dakhleya
54%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
23%
El Dakhleya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
76%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
41%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
17%
El Dakhleya 1+ goals
64%
El Dakhleya 2+ goals
27%
El Dakhleya 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
63%
El Dakhleya (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

El Dakhleya away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + El Dakhleya defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

El Dakhleya attack 0.88 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
46%
level
27%
El Dakhleya scores more
27%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ceramica Cleopatra 0 – 0 El Dakhleya

Ceramica Cleopatra and El Dakhleya drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.