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Ceramica Cleopatra vs Baladiyyat Al Mehalla — Premier League 2018

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
7/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra57%
×Draw24%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.73
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
0.90

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 92% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.33
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
0.65

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.14
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
2.12

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
81%
Ceramica Cleopatra or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
76%
Draw or Baladiyyat Al Mehalla
43%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
32%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
82%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
52%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
25%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals
59%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals
23%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
75%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 0.65 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
57%
level
24%
Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more
19%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra 4–0 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

Ceramica Cleopatra beat Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 4-0 in Premier League on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.