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Ceramica Cleopatra vs Al Ahly — League Cup 2021

Ceramica Cleopatra
Ceramica Cleopatra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
12/19/2025League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra49%
×Draw23%
Al Ahly28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.77
Al Ahly
1.27

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.86
Al Ahly
1.33

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra
1.21
Al Ahly
1.67

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw
72%
Ceramica Cleopatra or Al Ahly
77%
Draw or Al Ahly
51%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+
27%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals
83%
Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals
53%
Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals
26%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
72%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
36%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)
64%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.86 + Al Ahly defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Ahly attack 1.33 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more
49%
level
23%
Al Ahly scores more
28%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceramica Cleopatra vs Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Ceramica Cleopatra 1-0 in League Cup on December 19, 2025.

The match was played at Arab Contractors Stadium in Cairo.