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CEO vs Zumbi — Alagoano - 2 2024

CEO
CEO
FT
0 – 0
Zumbi
Zumbi
10/19/2024Alagoano - 2Alagoano - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Edson Matias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CEO41%
×Draw33%
Zumbi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CEO
1.02
Zumbi
0.74

CEO creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

CEO
1.50
Zumbi
1.15

allows per match

CEO
0.33
Zumbi
0.54

finishing

CEO+0.00on par
Zumbi+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CEO ↓

Zumbi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

CEO or draw
74%
CEO or Zumbi
67%
Draw or Zumbi
59%

Winning margin

CEO wins by 2+
16%
Zumbi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CEO 1+ goals
64%
CEO 2+ goals
27%
CEO 3+ goals
8%
Zumbi 1+ goals
52%
Zumbi 2+ goals
17%
Zumbi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CEO (draw refunded)
61%
Zumbi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CEO at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Zumbi away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CEO attack 1.50 + Zumbi defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.02

Zumbi attack 1.15 + CEO defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CEO scores more
41%
level
33%
Zumbi scores more
26%

CEO at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CEO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CEO 0 – 0 Zumbi

CEO and Zumbi drew 0-0 in Alagoano - 2 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Edson Matias in Olho d'Água das Flores, Alagoas.