CEO 1–0 Aliança AL: Result & Stats | Alagoano - 2

CEO

FT

1 – 0

Aliança AL

10/10/2024

Alagoano - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Edson Matias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CEO59%

×Draw26%

Aliança AL15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CEOExpected goals in this matchAliança AL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.62

CEO

1.52

Aliança AL

0.62

CEO creates 145% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

0.91

0.33

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

CEO

1.50

Aliança AL

0.91

allows per match

CEO

0.33

Aliança AL

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CEO+0.00on par

Aliança AL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CEO ↓

Aliança AL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CEO or draw

85%

CEO or Aliança AL

74%

Draw or Aliança AL

41%

Winning margin

CEO wins by 2+

31%

Aliança AL wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

CEO 1+ goals

78%

CEO 2+ goals

45%

CEO 3+ goals

20%

Aliança AL 1+ goals

46%

Aliança AL 2+ goals

13%

Aliança AL 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

CEO (draw refunded)

80%

Aliança AL (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CEO at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Aliança AL away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CEO attack 1.50 + Aliança AL defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aliança AL attack 0.91 + CEO defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

CEO scores more

59%

level

26%

Aliança AL scores more

15%

CEO at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "CEO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff