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Centro Español vs Sportivo Barracas — Primera C 2026

Centro Español
Centro Español
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sportivo Barracas
Sportivo Barracas
N. La Sala 90+4'
M. Romay 29'
L. Flores 9'
5/27/2024Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 19Estadio Ferrocarril Midland

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Centro Español48%
×Draw27%
Sportivo Barracas25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Centro Español
1.41
Sportivo Barracas
0.92

Centro Español creates 53% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 68 away

creates per match

Centro Español
1.59
Sportivo Barracas
0.78

allows per match

Centro Español
1.06
Sportivo Barracas
1.22

finishing

Centro Español+0.00on par
Sportivo Barracas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centro Español ↓

Sportivo Barracas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Centro Español or draw
75%
Centro Español or Sportivo Barracas
73%
Draw or Sportivo Barracas
52%

Winning margin

Centro Español wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Barracas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Centro Español 1+ goals
76%
Centro Español 2+ goals
41%
Centro Español 3+ goals
17%
Sportivo Barracas 1+ goals
60%
Sportivo Barracas 2+ goals
23%
Sportivo Barracas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Centro Español (draw refunded)
66%
Sportivo Barracas (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centro Español at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Sportivo Barracas away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centro Español attack 1.59 + Sportivo Barracas defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sportivo Barracas attack 0.78 + Centro Español defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Centro Español scores more
48%
level
27%
Sportivo Barracas scores more
25%

Centro Español at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Centro Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
L. Flores
29'
M. Romay
90+4'
N. La Sala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Centro Español 1–2 Sportivo Barracas

Sportivo Barracas beat Centro Español 2-1 in Primera C on May 27, 2024.

Goals: L. Flores (9'), M. Romay (29'), N. La Sala (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Ferrocarril Midland in Libertad, Provincia de Buenos Aires.