Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Centro Español vs Claypole — Primera C 2026

Centro Español
Centro Español
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Claypole
Claypole
11/15/2025Primera CPrimera C · Semi-finalsEstadio Carlos Sacaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Centro Español43%
×Draw28%
Claypole29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Centro Español
1.30
Claypole
1.01

Centro Español creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 106 away

creates per match

Centro Español
1.59
Claypole
0.96

allows per match

Centro Español
1.06
Claypole
1.01

finishing

Centro Español+0.00on par
Claypole+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Centro Español ↓

Claypole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Centro Español or draw
71%
Centro Español or Claypole
72%
Draw or Claypole
57%

Winning margin

Centro Español wins by 2+
20%
Claypole wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Centro Español 1+ goals
73%
Centro Español 2+ goals
37%
Centro Español 3+ goals
14%
Claypole 1+ goals
64%
Claypole 2+ goals
27%
Claypole 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Centro Español (draw refunded)
60%
Claypole (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Centro Español at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Claypole away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Centro Español attack 1.59 + Claypole defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.30

Claypole attack 0.96 + Centro Español defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Centro Español scores more
43%
level
28%
Claypole scores more
29%

Centro Español at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Centro Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Centro Español 1–1 Claypole

Centro Español and Claypole drew 1-1 in Primera C on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Sacaan.