Central 3–2 Caucaia: Result & Stats | Serie D

Central

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Caucaia

Eduardo Favero 84'

Rogerinho 74', 21'

Ednei 68' (pen)

Genesis 19'

6/13/2021

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Central68%

×Draw19%

Caucaia14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CentralExpected goals in this matchCaucaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.89

Central

2.25

Caucaia

0.89

Central creates 153% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.07

0.71

allows per match

3.21

creates per match

Central

1.29

Caucaia

1.07

allows per match

Central

0.71

Caucaia

3.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central+0.00on par

Caucaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central ↓

Caucaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Central or draw

86%

Central or Caucaia

81%

Draw or Caucaia

32%

Winning margin

Central wins by 2+

44%

Caucaia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Central 1+ goals

89%

Central 2+ goals

65%

Central 3+ goals

39%

Caucaia 1+ goals

59%

Caucaia 2+ goals

22%

Caucaia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Central (draw refunded)

83%

Caucaia (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Caucaia away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central attack 1.29 + Caucaia defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.25

Caucaia attack 1.07 + Central defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Central scores more

68%

level

19%

Caucaia scores more

14%

Central at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Genesis

21'

Rogerinho

46'

Gabriel Mendes← Vitinho

68'

EdneiPenalty

69'

Denilson← Pedro

69'

Jonatan Keding← Antonio

74'

Daniel← Michel Dalio

74'

Danilo Quipapá← David

74'

Rogerinho

81'

Eduardo← Matheus Rosas

84'

Eduardo Favero

86'

Rafael← Leandro Leite

86'

Vitor Ribeiro← Alysson

89'

Pedrinho← Renan

Central

Caucaia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: Júnior Baiano

69'▲Denilson←▼Pedro

69'▲Jonatan Keding←▼Antonio

74'▲Daniel←▼Michel Dalio

74'▲Danilo Quipapá←▼David

81'▲Eduardo←▼Matheus Rosas

Central substitutes

DenilsonKedingDanielQuipapáEduardoSérgioIgorPatrickRenanMisael

Manager: Ederson Araujo

46'▲Gabriel Mendes←▼Vitinho

86'▲Rafael←▼Leandro Leite

86'▲Vitor Ribeiro←▼Alysson

89'▲Pedrinho←▼Renan

Caucaia substitutes

MendesRafaelRibeiroPedrinhoJosueDiegoTiago