Central Valley Fuego 3–2 Tucson: Result & Stats

Central Valley Fuego

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tucson

V. Falck 75'

C. Dieye 52'

C. Chaney 34'

D. Toia 25'

F. Pérez 16'

9/1/2022

USL League One · Round 13Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego33%

×Draw25%

Tucson41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Valley FuegoExpected goals in this matchTucson

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.47

Central Valley Fuego

1.30

Tucson

1.47

Tucson creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

1.00

creates per match

1.27

1.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.00

Tucson

1.27

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.67

Tucson

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Tucson+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Tucson →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw

59%

Central Valley Fuego or Tucson

75%

Draw or Tucson

67%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

15%

Tucson wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

73%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

37%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

14%

Tucson 1+ goals

77%

Tucson 2+ goals

43%

Tucson 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

45%

Tucson (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Tucson away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.60 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Tucson defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tucson attack 1.27 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more

33%

level

25%

Tucson scores more

41%

Tucson at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tucson will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

25'

34'

40'

45'

45+3'

46'

A. Cerritos← O. Ramos

52'

C. Dieye↳ A. Cerritos

57'

V. Falck

61'

F. Perez

64'

M. Hornsby← A. Vera

65'

G. Calixtro← F. Pérez

72'

F. Garcia← D. Toia

75'

V. Falck↳ M. Hornsby

76'

D. Casillas← C. Dieye

77'

L. Perez

78'

M. Dabo

80'

T. Allen← T. Weir

80'

D. Bedoya← L. Perez

84'

M. Schenfeld← C. Chaney

85'

S. Chavez← F. Dulysse

90+1'

B. Fahling

90+1'

B. Fahling

Central

Tucson

23

Merancio

2

⚽

▼

Toia

21

Sunday

5

Fox

17

▼

Weir

16

A

Crull

27

Kinzner

4

Mastranto

13

▼

Perez

32

Fahling

29

⚽A

▼

28

5

2

13

▼

Dulysse

20

Bijev

19

▼

Vera

7

Dabo

6

A

▼

Ramos

8

⚽

Falck

9

⚽

▼

Chaney

24

⚽

▼

Dieye

Manager: M. Vasquez

46'▲A. Cerritos←▼O. Ramos

64'▲M. Hornsby←▼A. Vera

76'▲D. Casillas←▼C. Dieye

84'▲M. Schenfeld←▼C. Chaney

85'▲S. Chavez←▼F. Dulysse

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

29Cerritos25Hornsby22Casillas30Schenfeld15Chavez31Fernández4Gillingham

Manager: J. Pearlman

65'▲G. Calixtro←▼F. Pérez

72'▲F. Garcia←▼D. Toia

80'▲T. Allen←▼T. Weir

80'▲D. Bedoya←▼L. Perez

Tucson substitutes

11Calixtro14Garcia12Allen8Bedoya25Machell22Moss1Murray