Central Valley Fuego 2–2 Richmond Kickers

Central Valley Fuego

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Richmond Kickers

8/21/2022

USL League One · Round 13Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego35%

×Draw26%

Richmond Kickers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Valley FuegoExpected goals in this matchRichmond Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.39

Central Valley Fuego

1.31

Richmond Kickers

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 104 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.67

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.00

Richmond Kickers

1.11

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego

1.67

Richmond Kickers

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Richmond Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw

61%

Central Valley Fuego or Richmond Kickers

74%

Draw or Richmond Kickers

65%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

16%

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

73%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

38%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

14%

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals

75%

Richmond Kickers 2+ goals

40%

Richmond Kickers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

48%

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Richmond Kickers attack 1.11 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more

35%

level

26%

Richmond Kickers scores more

39%

Richmond Kickers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Richmond Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff