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Central Valley Fuego vs One Knoxville — USL League One 2019

Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
One Knoxville
One Knoxville
4/30/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 5Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego26%
×Draw26%
One Knoxville48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego
1.00
One Knoxville
1.46

One Knoxville creates 46% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 50 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.00
One Knoxville
1.24

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.67
One Knoxville
1.00

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par
One Knoxville+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

One Knoxville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw
52%
Central Valley Fuego or One Knoxville
74%
Draw or One Knoxville
74%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
9%
One Knoxville wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
63%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
26%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
8%
One Knoxville 1+ goals
77%
One Knoxville 2+ goals
43%
One Knoxville 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
35%
One Knoxville (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

One Knoxville away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + One Knoxville defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

One Knoxville attack 1.24 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more
26%
level
26%
One Knoxville scores more
48%

One Knoxville at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "One Knoxville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Central Valley Fuego 0–1 One Knoxville

One Knoxville beat Central Valley Fuego 1-0 in USL League One on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Fresno State Soccer Stadium in Fresno, California.