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Central Valley Fuego vs Charlotte Independence — USL League One 2019

Central Valley Fuego
Central Valley Fuego
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence
5/4/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 4Fresno State Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Central Valley Fuego34%
×Draw25%
Charlotte Independence42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego
1.36
Charlotte Independence
1.54

Charlotte Independence creates 13% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 68 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.00
Charlotte Independence
1.41

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego
1.67
Charlotte Independence
1.72

finishing

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par
Charlotte Independence+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego ↓

Charlotte Independence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego or draw
58%
Central Valley Fuego or Charlotte Independence
75%
Draw or Charlotte Independence
66%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+
15%
Charlotte Independence wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals
74%
Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals
39%
Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals
16%
Charlotte Independence 1+ goals
79%
Charlotte Independence 2+ goals
45%
Charlotte Independence 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)
45%
Charlotte Independence (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 42 matches

Charlotte Independence away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.00 + Charlotte Independence defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Charlotte Independence attack 1.41 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Valley Fuego scores more
34%
level
25%
Charlotte Independence scores more
42%

Charlotte Independence at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Charlotte Independence will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego vs Charlotte Independence

Charlotte Independence beat Central Valley Fuego 3-1 in USL League One on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Fresno State Soccer Stadium in Fresno, California.