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Central Valley Fuego II vs SF Glens — USL League Two 2018

Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SF Glens
SF Glens
7/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 73Fresno Pacific University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Valley Fuego II25%
×Draw21%
SF Glens54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego II
1.46
SF Glens
2.19

SF Glens creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 39 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
SF Glens
1.72

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego II
2.67
SF Glens
1.59

finishing

Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par
SF Glens+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego II ↓

SF Glens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego II or draw
46%
Central Valley Fuego II or SF Glens
79%
Draw or SF Glens
75%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
11%
SF Glens wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
77%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
43%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
18%
SF Glens 1+ goals
89%
SF Glens 2+ goals
64%
SF Glens 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
32%
SF Glens (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

SF Glens away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego II attack 1.33 + SF Glens defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

SF Glens attack 1.72 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Central Valley Fuego II scores more
25%
level
21%
SF Glens scores more
54%

SF Glens at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SF Glens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego II vs SF Glens

Central Valley Fuego II beat SF Glens 4-2 in USL League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno Pacific University in Fresno, California.