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Central Valley Fuego II vs Project 51O — USL League Two 2018

Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Project 51O
Project 51O
7/18/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 77Fresno Pacific University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Valley Fuego II29%
×Draw20%
Project 51O50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego II
1.67
Project 51O
2.23

Project 51O creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 35 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
Project 51O
1.80

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego II
2.67
Project 51O
2.00

finishing

Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par
Project 51O+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego II ↓

Project 51O →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego II or draw
50%
Central Valley Fuego II or Project 51O
80%
Draw or Project 51O
71%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
14%
Project 51O wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
81%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
50%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
23%
Project 51O 1+ goals
89%
Project 51O 2+ goals
65%
Project 51O 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
37%
Project 51O (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Project 51O away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego II attack 1.33 + Project 51O defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Project 51O attack 1.80 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Central Valley Fuego II scores more
29%
level
20%
Project 51O scores more
50%

Project 51O at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Project 51O will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego II vs Project 51O

Central Valley Fuego II and Project 51O drew 2-2 in USL League Two on July 18, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno Pacific University in Fresno, California.