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Central Valley Fuego II vs Golden State Force — USL League Two 2018

Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Golden State Force
Golden State Force
5/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 5Fresno Pacific University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Valley Fuego II35%
×Draw23%
Golden State Force42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego II
1.60
Golden State Force
1.76

Golden State Force creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
Golden State Force
0.86

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego II
2.67
Golden State Force
1.86

finishing

Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par
Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego II ↓

Golden State Force →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego II or draw
58%
Central Valley Fuego II or Golden State Force
77%
Draw or Golden State Force
65%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
17%
Golden State Force wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
80%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
47%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
22%
Golden State Force 1+ goals
83%
Golden State Force 2+ goals
52%
Golden State Force 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
46%
Golden State Force (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego II attack 1.33 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Central Valley Fuego II scores more
35%
level
23%
Golden State Force scores more
42%

Golden State Force at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Golden State Force will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Central Valley Fuego II 2–2 Golden State Force

Central Valley Fuego II and Golden State Force drew 2-2 in USL League Two on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno Pacific University in Fresno, California.