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Central Valley Fuego II vs Davis Legacy — USL League Two 2026

Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 5
Davis Legacy
Davis Legacy
6/5/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 26Fresno Pacific University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Valley Fuego II38%
×Draw21%
Davis Legacy41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego II
1.89
Davis Legacy
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
Davis Legacy
1.30

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego II
2.67
Davis Legacy
2.45

finishing

Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par
Davis Legacy+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego II ↓

Davis Legacy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego II or draw
59%
Central Valley Fuego II or Davis Legacy
79%
Draw or Davis Legacy
62%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
20%
Davis Legacy wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
85%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
56%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
29%
Davis Legacy 1+ goals
86%
Davis Legacy 2+ goals
59%
Davis Legacy 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
48%
Davis Legacy (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Davis Legacy away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego II attack 1.33 + Davis Legacy defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Davis Legacy attack 1.30 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Valley Fuego II scores more
38%
level
21%
Davis Legacy scores more
41%

Davis Legacy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Davis Legacy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Valley Fuego II vs Davis Legacy

Davis Legacy beat Central Valley Fuego II 6-0 in USL League Two on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno Pacific University in Fresno, California.